EBRD launches Transition Report 2009
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The road to a fragile recovery
The EBRD has released its latest economic forecasts. Signs of positive growth in the third quarter suggest the recession is bottoming out in much of the EBRD region - but any upturn in 2010 is likely to be fragile and patchy.
At the start of this year, the global economic crisis was hitting central and eastern Europe with unimaginable force. Any illusion that this region was somehow immune from the “western”…
Kazakhstan’s industrial policy: between pipedream and pipelines?
Can something good come out of the crisis? Perhaps. Kazakhstan – battered by a sudden stop in bank funding and a lower oil price – recently announced updated industrialisation plans that seem more realistic than earlier versions. The stated goal is still to advance economic diversification and reduce the country’s dependence on oil. But with less oil money floating around, the government seems to have put its feet back on
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In defense of foreign banks
‘Banker’ has recently become somewhat of a dirty word and ‘foreign banker’ a most reviled sub-species. Over the last months foreign banks have, amongst other things, been accused of abandoning some of the emerging markets that have contributed so much to their profitability over the last decade. When the going gets tough, so the story goes, foreign banks quickly cut back their lending abroad and refocus on domestic clients. Indeed,
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The EBRD’s new growth forecasts: “bearish”, or turning point?
Following the release of our latest growth forecasts for the EBRD countries of operations on Thursday, Reuters reported that emerging European currencies had retreated on “bearish EBRD forecasts.”
As the creators of these forecasts, we found this both flattering and dismaying. Flattering, because it is nice to be taken seriously. Dismaying, because it was not the reaction we had hoped for.
So, was the reaction justified? Or, to…
BIS data on cross-border flows – a closer look
Authors: Piroska Nagy (-7149) and Stephan Knobloch (-7065), 5 May 2009.
New BIS data for the last quarter of 2008 show that BIS-reporting banks significantly reduced their asset holdings across major regions of the world. While in absolute terms most of the reduction took place in advanced countries, in relative terms, emerging markets were hit harder. Our region has thus far been least affected. Furthermore, the decline has been concentrated…
The crisis has changed the EBRD
The debates among the G20 leaders about global architecture and the crisis response of the international institutions may seem abstract and removed from the concerns of most people. But the discussions are very real to those of us working in these institutions as we prepare to meet our key stakeholders at our Annual Meetings on May 15-16 in London.
The crisis has changed the way we operate. Today’s EBRD…
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